The SpaceX CEO is aiming for Starship’s Version 3 to fly by the end of this year. From there, he hopes to catch an upcoming launch window for Mars that opens at the end of 2026. “We’ll try to make that opportunity, if we get lucky,” Musk said during his talk. “I think we probably have a 50/50 chance right now.” We’ve learned not to take Musk’s timelines too seriously, but a Starship redesign will probably be necessary to lift the rocket out of its recent slump. And until SpaceX successfully demonstrates in-orbit refueling—an absolute requirement for reaching Mars—Starship remains more fantasy than spacecraft.

Musk acknowledged that his latest timeline for reaching Mars hinged on whether Starship can accomplish a number of challenging technical feats during its flight-test development, particularly a post-launch refueling maneuver in Earth orbit. The end of 2026 would coincide with a slim window that occurs once every two years when Mars and Earth align around the sun for the closest trip between the two planets, which would take seven to nine months to transit by spacecraft.

On Thursday, Mr Musk revealed new designs for SpaceX’s Starship, which he said would be “taller” and have a redesigned separation mechanism. He said future generations of its Starship would be 465ft tall and have twice the payload capacity of the Saturn V rocket that conducted the original Moon missions. The billionaire added that his ambition was that “anyone who wants to move to Mars can do so”, which he said would be the “best adventure that anyone could possibly do”. He added there was a “50/50” chance SpaceX would launch an uncrewed Starship mission at the end of 2026, when Mars is at the closest point in its orbit to Earth.