In January, Justin Trudeau announced his resignation as Canada's prime minister, and former Bank of Canada and Bank of England governor, Carney, won the leadership election and called for a snap election after nine days in office. Advance polls opened on Friday, and voters in Canada cast ballots for parties, not leaders, with the leader of the party that wins the most seats traditionally becoming the head of government. Prior to Trudeau's resignation, Poilievre was favored to win, but Trump's tariff policies and threats to annex Canada have shifted the election's course, resulting in a surge for the Liberal Party. The latest forecast from 338Canada shows the Liberals leading with 43% of the vote, compared to the Conservatives' 38%, predicting 188 seats for the Liberals and 125 for the Conservatives. Prediction market Polymarket gives Carney a 77% chance of winning, with Poilievre at 23%. A Leger survey found 43% support for the Liberals and 38% for the Conservatives, with a margin of error of +/- 1.79%. In the final debate, Carney stated, "We are facing the biggest crisis of our lifetimes. Donald Trump is trying to fundamentally change the world economy... he’s trying to break us, so the U.S. can own us." Poilievre countered, "The Liberal government has weakened our economy with anti-energy laws, red tape and high taxes... that weakness threatens our ability to stand up for ourselves."

Canadians will soon head to the polls for a federal election under the long shadow of an escalating trade war with the US. Mark Carney, who was sworn in as prime minister to replace Justin Trudeau on March 14, called the snap election for April 28. Carney is signalling that he thinks his Liberal Party would stand a better chance of winning if the vote was held sooner, capitalising on a remarkable recovery in the polls in response to President Trump’s threats.

Millions of Canadians lined up to vote in advance polls this long weekend, as the federal party leaders hit the campaign trail for the final days before a pivotal election. A week remains for the leaders to persuade voters that their policies present the best roadmap for Canada during an exceptional time of global economic and political instability. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre will use the final week to concentrate on his message of change, while Liberal Leader Mark Carney will keep his focus on U.S. President Donald Trump and Canada-U.S. trade tensions. Elections Canada said that a record of nearly two million people cast ballots on Friday, the first day of advance voting – though those numbers are still preliminary. On Sunday, the agency said voter turnout continued to be strong over the weekend, but no additional numbers would be released until Tuesday. As well, Elections Canada said it had received 720,654 mailed-in ballots as of late Saturday night.