Astronomers Rule Out Earth Impact from Asteroid 2024 YR4, but Say Lunar Collision Still Possible in 2032

Newsweek
NASA Tracking Plane-Sized Asteroid Nearing Earth

NASA is monitoring a plane-sized asteroid expected to whiz past the Earth today at a speed of around 45,991 miles per hour. The space rock known as "2025 GH," is estimated to be about 120 feet across, and will make its closest approach to Earth at a distance of 562,000 miles, as reported by NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL). 2025 GH is part of a series of near-Earth approaches currently being closely monitored by scientists. Four other asteroids will be zipping past our planet today, include three plane-sized space rocks and a bus-sized one, all of them over three million miles away from us. Asteroids zoom past the Earth all the time, and they're usually no cause of concern. However, a small portion of them, particularly those measuring over 460 feet across, are classified as potentially hazardous asteroids (PHAs), and are therefore closely monitored by NASA.

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theregister.com
NASA doubles odds of asteroid 2024 YR4 hitting Moon

Late last year, a newly discovered asteroid caused quite a stir when initial observations revealed a greater than 1% chance that it would strike the Earth in 2032. The medium-sized asteroid, dubbed 2024 YR4, makes a close approach with the Earth approximately every four years, and each time there’s an opportunity for impact. Astronomers knew it would make a clean pass in 2028, but where it would end up four years later was less clear. For a moment, it looked like we might be in store for a cosmic fight akin to Asteroid vs Earth (streaming now on Peacock). Since then, additional observations, including some new pictures from the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), more clearly defined its actual orbit and determined there is essentially zero chance 2024 YR4 will impact the Earth in the foreseeable future. However, at least some of its potential paths still intersect the Moon, which means we might be witness to an incredible lunar asteroid strike early next decade.

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The Sun
‘City killer’ asteroid 2024 YR4 that threatened Earth now could smash into MOON

The good news is that we know the asteroid has a very low chance of striking the Earth after NASA's update in late February. But concerningly, the latest calculations of the odds of it striking the Moon on December 22, 2032 continue to rise. They jumped from a 1-in-59 chance in late February to a 1-in-26 chance in early April, based on observations by NASA's James Webb Space Telescope. And the asteroid is even bigger than it was initially calculated, according to a recent NASA update. JWST observations suggest that it measures between 174-220 feet in diameter - roughly the size of a 10-story building. This is a jump from its previous size estimate of 131-295 feet. “At this writing, a 2032 impact with the Moon has not been ruled out,” wrote lead author Andy Rivkin from Johns Hopkins University in a new study. NASA reassured that although the probability remains low - at over 96 per cent chance of a miss - the scenario is under close observation. The next opportunity for close tracking will be in early 2026, experts said. If the asteroid collides with the Moon, Earth will reportedly be largely unaffected. "There is the possibility this would eject some material back out that could hit the Earth, but I highly doubt it would cause any major threat," David Rankin, operations engineer for the University of Arizona's Catalina Sky Survey, told the New Scientist in February. But he added that the collision would likely be "very visible" from Earth.

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Asteroid feared would hit Earth may now obliterate the Moon instead, claims NASA
Asteroid space rock 2024 YR4 was originally calculated to have 3.1% probability of impacting our planet on 22 December 2032. New observations by NASA's powerful James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) suggest there is a chance of impact on the lunar surface. Additional observations of the asteroid will be made by JWST in May 2025.
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Turns Out Earth Is Safe from Asteroid 2024 YR4, but What About the Moon?
Asteroid 2024 YR4 threatened to impact Earth, now it might hit the Moon. The asteroid makes a close approach with the Earth approximately every four years, and each time there’s an opportunity for impact. Since then, additional observations, including some new pictures from the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), more clearly defined its actual orbit.
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'City-destroying' asteroid even BIGGER than we thought, scientists say
Scientists issue chilling update on the 'city-destroying' asteroid - and warn it's even BIGGER than we previously thought. 2024 YR4 is due to make a perilously close pass of Earth and the moon in 2032. Were an asteroid of this size to hit the Earth, it would unleash a blast 500 times more powerful than that of the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima.
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Asteroid 2024 YR4 is so big it's the size of a 10-story building
NASA says asteroid 2024 YR4, the size of a 10-story building, now has a chance of crashing into the moon. At the start of the year, word spread that a huge “city-destroying” asteroid was hurtling in the direction of Earth.
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Rising odds asteroid that briefly threatened Earth will hit Moon
Asteroid that was briefly feared to strike Earth now has a nearly four percent chance of smashing into the Moon, according to new data from the James Webb Space Telescope. The asteroid, thought to be capable of levelling a city, set a new record in February for having the highest chance of hitting our home planet.
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Scientists say ‘city-killer’ asteroid on potential collision course with Moon
Asteroid 2024 YR4 was initially estimated to hit Earth in 2032. But new direct observations of the asteroid by Nasa’s James Webb Space Telescope suggest a nearly 4 per cent chance of the rock smashing into the Moon. Scientists say that even a 1% chance of a rock this big hitting the Earth may warrant the development of deflection missions.
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Asteroid big enough to wipe out cities could still strike Moon creating major lunar impact
Astronomers are closely monitoring Asteroid 2024 YR4 amid concerns that it could collide with the Moon in 2032. Initial projections indicated a possible Earth impact, but updated data from NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) has ruled out that scenario. Instead, scientists are now focusing on its potential trajectory toward the Moon.
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Odds of a Skyscraper-Sized Asteroid Hitting the Moon Are Increasing, and Scientists Are All for It
NASA says the chances of an asteroid dubbed ‘2024 YR4’ hitting the lunar surface have doubled since February.
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NASA raise the odds of asteroid size of a 10-storey building hitting the Moon
NASA issues update on size of 'city-killer' asteroid 2024 that could smash into the Moon. The space rock, which is roughly the size of a 10-story building, was previously predicted to be heading for Earth in 2032. NASA reassures that such an impact would not alter the Moon's orbit.
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Chance of asteroid hitting Moon increases slightly
Chance of asteroid hitting Moon increases slightly. Chance of a Moon impact on 22 December, 2032, has nearly doubled from 1.7% to 3.8%. It based the recalculation on information from telescopes including the James Webb Space Telescope. 2024 YR4 was first spotted through a telescope in the desert in Chile in December.
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Asteroid Impact Chances Increase, This Time For The Moon
Asteroid 2024 YR4 seemed to present a small but non-zero chance of smashing into our planet. The space rock isn't big enough to take out a planet, but it could lay waste to a very unlucky city. New observations of the object made it clear it posed no material threat to us after all.
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Scientists give major update on 'city-killer' 2024 YR4 asteroid headed for Earth
Asteroid was originally thought to have a one-in-32 chance of hitting Earth in 2032. But new measurements have revealed it is actually about 60 metres in diameter. If the asteroid were to hit, the energy released would be equivalent to 8 megatons of TNT.
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